Commonality in Misvaluation, Equity Financing, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Behavioral theories suggest that investor misperceptions and market mispricing will be correlated across firms. This paper uses equity financing to identify comovement in returns and commonality in misvaluation. A zero-investment portfolio (UMO, Undervalued Minus Overvalued) built from repurchase and new issue stocks captures excess comovement in general stock returns relative to a set of multi-factor models. Adding UMO to the 3-factors makes the alphas insignificant for portfolios with extreme size and book-to-market, or based on M&A, convertible bond issuance, and dividend initiation, resumption, and omission. The loadings on UMO incrementally predict the cross-section of returns on portfolios as well as individual stocks. Further evidence is consistent with the UMO loading proxying for the common component of a stock's misvaluation.Comovement, equity financing, new issue, repurchase, systematic mispricing, return predictability

An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness

This paper models how imperfect memory affects the optimal continuity of policies. We examine the choices of a player (individual or firm) who observes previous actions but cannot remember the rationale for these actions. In a stable environment, the player optimally responds to memory loss with excess inertia, defined as a higher probability of following old policies than would occur under full recall. In a volatile environment, the player can exhibit excess impulsiveness (i.e., be more prone to follow new information signals). The model provides a memory-loss explanation for some documented psychological biases, implies that inertia and organizational routines should be more important in stable environments than in volatile ones, and provides other empirical implications relating memory and environmental variables to the continuity of decisions.Memory, inertia, amnesia, behavioral economics

A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross Section of Expected Returns

Behavioral theories suggest that investor misperceptions and market mispricing will be correlated across firms. We use equity and debt financing to identify common misvaluation across firms. A zero-investment portfolio (UMO, Undervalued Minus Overvalued) built from repurchase and new issue firms captures comovement in returns beyond that in some standard multifactor models, and substantially improves the Sharpe ratio of the tangency portfolio. Loadings on UMO incrementally predict the cross-section of returns on both portfolios and individual stocks, even among firms not recently involved in external financing activities. Further evidence suggests that UMO loadings proxy for the common component of a stock's misvaluation.Misvaluation, financing, new issues, repurchase, factor models, market efficiency, behavioral finance

On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in a Competitive Securities Market

Recent research has proposed several ways in which overconfident traders can persist in competition with rational traders. This paper offers an additional reason: overconfident traders do better than purely rational traders at exploiting mispricing caused by liquidity or noise traders. We examine both the static profitability of overconfident versus rational trading strategies, and the dynamic evolution of a population of overconfident, rational and noise traders. Replication of overconfident and rational types is assumed to be increasing in the recent profitability of their strategies. The main result is that the long-run steady-state equilibrium always involves overconfident traders as a substantial positive fraction of the population.Survivorship, Natural Selection, Overconfident Traders, Noise traders

The Psychological Attraction Approach to Accounting and Disclosure Policy

We offer here the psychological attraction approach to accounting and disclosure rules, regulation, and policy as a program for positive accounting research. We suggest that psychological forces have shaped and continue to shape rules and policies in two different ways. (1) Good Rules for Bad Users: rules and policies that provide information in a form that is useful for users who are subject to bias and cognitive processing constraints. (2) Bad Rules: superfluous or even pernicious rules and policies that result from psychological bias on the part of the ‘designers’ (managers, users, auditors, regulators, politicians, or voters). We offer some initial ideas about psychological sources of the use of historical costs, conservatism, aggregation, and a focus on downside outcomes in risk disclosures. We also suggest that psychological forces cause informal shifts in reporting and disclosure regulation and policy, which can exacerbate boom/bust patterns in financial markets.Investor psychology; accounting regulation; disclosure policy; salience; omission bias; scapegoating; limited attention; overconfidence; conservatism; loss aversion; accrual; smoothing; mental accounting; historical cost; risk disclosure; value-at-risk

Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets

Prevailing models of capital markets capture a limited form of social influence and information transmission, in which the beliefs and behavior of an investor affects others only through market price, information transmission and processing is simple (without thoughts and feelings), and there is no localization in the influence of an investor on others. In reality, individuals often process verbal arguments obtained in conversation or from media presentations, and observe the behavior of others. We review here evidence concerning how these activities cause beliefs and behaviors to spread, affect financial decisions, and affect market prices; and theoretical models of social influence and its effects on capital markets. Social influence is central to how information and investor sentiment are transmitted, so thought and behavior contagion should be incorporated into the theory of capital markets.capital markets; thought contagion; behavioral contagion; herd behavior; information cascades; social learning; investor psychology; accounting regulation; disclosure policy; behavioral finance; market efficiency; popular models; memes

Promotion Tournaments and Capital Rationing

We analyze capital allocation in a conglomerate where divisional managers with uncertain abilities compete for promotion to CEO. A manager can sometimes gain by unobservably adding variance to divisional performance. Capital rationing can limit this distortion, increase productive efficiency, and allow the owner to make more accurate promotion decisions. Firms for which CEO talent is more important for firm performance are more likely to ration capital. A rationed manager is more likely to be promoted even though all managers are identical ex ante. When the tournament payoff is relatively small, offering an incentive wage can be more efficient than rationing capital; however, when tournament incentives are paramount, rationing is more efficient.

Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment

This paper explores whether and why misvaluation affects corporate investment by comparing tangible and intangible investments; and by using a price-based misvaluation proxy that filters out scale and earnings growth prospects. Capital, and especially R\&D expenditures increase with overpricing; but only among overvalued firms. Misvaluation affects investment both directly (catering) and through equity issuance. The sensitivity of capital expenditures to misvaluation is stronger among financially constrained firms; for R&D this differential is strong and in the opposite direction. We identify several other factors that influence the strength of misvaluation effects on investment. Generally the equity channel reinforces direct catering, suggesting that the two are complementary. Overall, our evidence supports several implications of the misvaluation hypothesis for the tangible and intangible components of investment.behavioral finance; misvaluation; market efficiency; corporate investment